Forex traders should be shouting to the clouds. Up and down, down and up. The dollar and Mr. Crude Oil are playing teeter-totter. Both have been trading in a pretty definable range for quite some time. Astute forex traders have played the dollar both ways.
What am I talking about? Take a look at a daily chart and look at the range of the EUR/USD. Since late August it has been confined to a 500 pip range testing each extreme numerous times. GBP/USD, yup, USD/CHF-yes sir.
So how does a forex trader trade something like this? To much risk? Not much risk at all if you trade it the grail way. We traded all 3 currency pairs plus a few more and never used more than 75 pip s/l. Situations like this do not happen all the time. A good forex trader is prepared for them when they do. Are you prepared? Does your "system" make you prepared for these currency honey holes? If not you may want to rethink your strategy.
Oil, where's it going. I really have no idea although I have a hunch that it will retreat a bit. The Saudi's are understandably concerned with the high prices. Although they are making huge profits now they understand that continued skyrocketing oil prices will leave the rest of the world with no choice but to get moving on some alternative methods. This in turn will ultimately lead to less consumption. The end result of these extreme oil prices will be less of a demand for oil and that is something that OPEC surely doesn't want. Oil is essential to us, to them, to everyone, so I see a softening in the price of crude soon. How much remains to be seen.
In the short term, play the bounces. Forex traders should be rejoicing as there is much currency to be made. As I prepare to re-launch the new and improved The FXGrail website there will be many articles and options to learn more about forex, commodities, and all things economy! Stay tuned, its coming soon.
Friday, June 20, 2008
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