Very Interesting

As you know we at The FXGrail like to keep your brains thinking all the time. Here is an interesting take on the Bear Stearns free fall. Makes you think doesn't it?

From RollingStone
Oct.14, 2009

Wall Street's Naked Swindle

A scheme to flood the market with counterfeit stocks helped kill Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers — and the feds have yet to bust the culprits

MATT TAIBBI

On Tuesday, March 11th, 2008, somebody — nobody knows who — made one of the craziest bets Wall Street has ever seen. The mystery figure spent $1.7 million on a series of options, gambling that shares in the venerable investment bank Bear Stearns would lose more than half their value in nine days or less. It was madness — "like buying 1.7 million lottery tickets," according to one financial analyst.

But what's even crazier is that the bet paid.

At the close of business that afternoon, Bear Stearns was trading at $62.97. At that point, whoever made the gamble owned the right to sell huge bundles of Bear stock, at $30 and $25, on or before March 20th. In order for the bet to pay, Bear would have to fall harder and faster than any Wall Street brokerage in history.

The very next day, March 12th, Bear went into free fall. By the end of the week, the firm had lost virtually all of its cash and was clinging to promises of state aid; by the weekend, it was being knocked to its knees by the Fed and the Treasury, and forced at the barrel of a shotgun to sell itself to JPMorgan Chase (which had been given $29 billion in public money to marry its hunchbacked new bride) at the humiliating price of … $2 a share. Whoever bought those options on March 11th woke up on the morning of March 17th having made 159 times his money, or roughly $270 million. This trader was either the luckiest guy in the world, the smartest son of a bitch ever or… Read the rest.........click here.......

The Week Ahead

Here are some events to look for this week as you prepare your forex trades:

Monday: The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators is due in the morning. LEI is expected to have risen 0.7% in August after having risen 0.6% in July, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

Tuesday: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) releases its July home price index after the start of trading. The index is expected to have risen 0.5% after rising 0.5% in June.

The Federal Reserve begins its two-day interest rate policy setting meeting with a decision expected Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is set to testify before the House Financial Services committee on regulatory reform, starting at around 9:30 a.m. ET.

The Fed is widely expected to hold the fed funds rate, a key short-tem interest rate, at historic lows near zero on Wednesday, with an announcement due at 2:15 p.m. ET. But investors will be more focused on what the bankers say about their "exit strategy" as they seek to wind down programs that pumped trillions into the economy to cushion the blow of the recession.

The weekly crude oil inventories report is also due in the morning.

Thursday: The existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is due shortly after the start of trading. August sales are expected to have risen to a 5.33 million unit annual rate from a 5.24 million unit rate in July. July sales were up 7.2% from the previous month, the largest monthly gain on record, going back to 1999.

The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department is due before the start of trading. 550,000 Americans are expected to have filed new claims for unemployment, versus 545,000 claims the week before. Continuing claims, a measure of people who have received benefits for a year or more, likely fell to 6.188 million from 6.230 million the week before.

Also Thursday, the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh gets underway. The Group of 20 leading developed and emerging countries will discuss the ongoing efforts to stabilize economies after the financial market meltdown.

Bull Market to continue?

Great article on cnn about the stock market and the economy that I thought I would share. These things play a big part in our forex trading business. All news in the financial markets is important news!

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With little on the docket to challenge investor optimism, the defiantly bullish stock market is looking to extend its staggering run in the week ahead.

And why not? Wall Street has shaken off pervasive calls for a September selloff and warnings about the still-struggling economy, managing frequent, fresh 2009 highs of late. The Dow Jones industrial average, the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq composite have all ended higher in 9 of the last 11 sessions.

The petering out of certain government programs in the last two months of the year and the possibility that third-quarter financial reports will disappoint are real concerns -- so is the reality of a still-brutal job market and change in consumer attitudes toward spending versus saving. But these longer-term worries aren't likely to dominate in the week ahead.

"As long as the economic news keeps pointing up, the market is likely to post more gains in the near-term," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group.

"However, given the rate of ascent in recent days, investors should be prepared for a pullback before too long," he said. "Anything that could disrupt the positive outlook could spell trouble."

Since bottoming at a 12-year low March 9, the S&P 500 has gained 58% and the Dow has gained 50%. Since bottoming at a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained 68%.

The advance has been driven by extraordinary amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus and a growing sense of optimism about the economy.

But that optimism may be misplaced, said Robert Loest, portfolio manager at Integrity Funds, and he said stocks could be in for a bigger selloff a few months out. "I don't think we've seen a rebound of this magnitude following a crash and I'm suspicious."

"This is not the time for investors to be getting into stocks but to be taking profits," he said. "I think this rally can go another five weeks or so, but not three months or six months."

Bernanke

So Mr. Bernanke says it looks like the recession is over. Everybody must rejoice. The forex trading world should rejoice. Just kidding. Big Ben sure likes to state the obvious doesn't he.

The question all forex traders should be pondering is what will the US Fed do with the interest rates? Will they start gradually raising them? Will they leave them alone? Where will the currencies go? The next year or so should be quite interesting to those of you that pay attention to the world feds and how they read and react to the improving economy. Growth in the economies of the world is not going to blow anybody over but we should start to see steady but slow growth. Watch how the feds of the world react to the new world economy. It should be interesting and probably quite comical. Forex traders get ready, should be an interesting next 12 months.

Stimulus=838 Billion

$838 Billion. That is a chunk of change. Will the stimulus work? It sure will help. After clearing a few key hurdles in Congress it looks like Pres. Obama will get this thing passed. I believe it is a mute point whether you are for or against this massive plan. It has become increasingly apparent that the core of the economy is in danger and something must be done.

There are many good things in this stimulus package and of course, in my opinion, some nonsense. We are of course talking about Congress after all. I tip my hat to them as it does, on the surface, appear that the pork has been kept to a minimum and that's no small feat.

What to look for as a forex trader? You should see the greenback strengthen against the majors, especially on the heels of the Eurozone not cutting rates. Look back over the past year, traders like currencies when their respective governments have enacted policies to stave off this recession. Look at recent history, Bank of England cuts rates, currency jumps, Eurozone doesn't, currency suffers. Look for the same thing this week if the stimulus package gets through the Senate.

Bailout, Economy, And More......

I love this business. I hate to relish in the US economy meltdown but there has been serious money made over the last month or so. Trading only my three strike setup has been very lucrative (minus some crappy roll rates). I have been quite busy raking in the pips, too busy to post. That is the beauty of the forex market, pips to be made regardless of the actual state of the economy. Beautiful!

Now about that economy. The Feds have proposed a $700 billion dollar bail out. I may be of the minority here in this country but I have got to say NO! Let the idiots suffer. Do I believe that without this money the country will collapse. NO! Will it be tough, most certainly there are hard times ahead. This mess won't get fixed overnight, $700 billion or not. Nobody is there to bail me ou when I make stupid decisions, terrible trades, crappy investments. When is enough enough. Did these investment banks share any of their record gains over the previous year? Uh, no. Where was the Fed years ago when anybody with a head on their shoulders knew there was trouble ahead? Where were they when these investment banks were cooking the books, hiding this bad debt? I'll tell you where they were. They were on Capitol Hill telling congress that the economy was fundamentally sound over and over and over.

Let them all fail. It's time to start over. $700 billion or not this economic model will need to be changed. The bailout is and will be just a band-aid (an expensive one at that). You do know that the new CEO of Freddie Mac will make $900,000 this year. Less than the former idiot but come on. If things are so bad, the gov had to bail these guys out, don't you think this guy should be working for a bit less? I know $900,000 is tough to live on but give me a break. This is the perfect example of why the USA is in such a mess. SHOULD BE INTERESTING!

Could It Be?

Is this the end of the bear market? I doubt it. This seems to me to be more of a bear market bounce, better known as a suckers rally. I don't believe we have seen the bottom yet. Watch the dollar in the coming weeks, I think we will continue to see it trade in the same range it has for most of the summer. We will see another run at Eur 1.60 which would be a great opportunity to add some long term EUR/USD shorts and make some money this fall/winter. I believe black gold (oil) will also tease us a bit. Beware of the false bottom!

Forex, Oil, Banks, & The Dollar

What a web we (the US) weave. This is a most interesting time in the currency world. Has the oil bubble burst? Is the US economy hit rock bottom? Will the dollar regain its place in world economics? I do not pretend to know the answers to any of these questions, I really do not care. As a forex trader I just trade what I see. All traders should trade what they see. The fundamentals behind all of these questions are fascinating and do play a part in my overall strategy. Notice in a previous post I recommended to be careful of any long term dollar short. I still hold that view. I do believe we will see the greenback start to gain back some of it's prestige. The thing you must remember is it's in the best interest of almost everybody to have a strong dollar. Notice recent reports out of the Eurozone, they want a stronger dollar. China wants a stronger dollar as they have a fortune in dollars and a weak buck makes no sense for them, it lessens there holdings.

Has the oil bubble burst? I believe what you are seeing is a technical pull back. I do believe we are near the top of the range for oil but I don't believe we'll see any kind of burst. Remember where oil was last year at this time and give it some thought. Is this recent pullback the bubble bursting? No, oil would have to fall quite a bit more for any talk of bubble bursting to make any sense. What will be the downfall of oil is the renewed efforts to lessen the dependence on oil. This is what the Saudi's are worried about. I see it in everyday conversation with ordinary people.

There is still much pain to be felt in the US economy as more banks will fail because of the mortgage mess and unemployment will remain high. However, the worst may be over for the US economy. Now it's time for other world economies to feel the pain. We(USA)are already dealing with these issues, the rest of the world will have to deal with them too.

Fannie And Freddie

Will Fanny and Freddie fail? We all better hope not. Freddie and Fanny have about half the mortgages in the USA to a tune of almost 6 trillion dollars. If these should fail the US will plunge into a depression. No recession, straight into a depression. The government is already taking steps to ensure this doesn't happen. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been granted authority (by the Federal Reserve) to lend to the two companies should the need arise. The government will do whatever it takes, even if it requires a takeover.

The failure of IndyMac has everyone waiting for the next shoe to drop. What caused the failure? It was another classic run on the bank. With customers pulling out their funds, the bank simply ran out of money. Will more fail? I am under the assumption that there will be more bank failures. I don't believe that any big names will go down although there has been some speculation that WAMU is in some trouble.

How does this affect the greenback? It is hard to say. I think there will be a bit more pressure on the dollar in the short term, but we should see the dollar start to strengthen as we get into the third quarter barring any huge failures(Freddie, Frannie). Play it as you see it, I would however be wary of any long term dollar shorts at these levels.

Paulson Vs Saudi Arabia

Watching CNN today I had the pleasure of hearing another of our wonderful Feds. Mr. Paulson apparently has decided he knows more about oil than the Saudi bunch. The middle east boys have said that the oil price is not being set by supply and demand and that current oil prices are not justified. Do you believe that the middle east wants the world to slow down oil consumption? Not hardly, less oil reliance equals less profits for them.

Mr. Arrogant, er, Paulson chimed in with his wisdom that the price is indeed being set by supply and demand. Hum, exactly how does a suite in Washington have a better understanding about the oil supply and demand than the ones actually have the oil? The correct answer is he doesn't, he is as full of hot air as the rest of our fine Fed leadership. Imagine what one of their meetings is like, arrogance unlimited.

The good news for us forex traders, there is none. If you are trading currency correctly it really doesn't matter who is telling the truth. Trade what the forex market gives you not what you want it to give. It is quite simple, let the charts do the talking, not a bunch of windbags in Washington.

Commodity Investors Drive Oil

Here is another good read for all that missed it. As we know, all things affect the currency market. Forex is a profession of knowledge, more knowledge=better trader.

Commodity Fund Investors Help Drive Oil Prices Higher

By Adam Shell, USA TODAY

NEW YORK — The list of culprits to blame for $4 gas and $125 oil keeps getting longer.

Oil-thirsty China and India get most of the blame. The declining U.S. dollar, tight supplies, geopolitics and hurricanes also are on the villains list.

Last week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) alleged that market "manipulators" may be partly responsible for the spike in crude oil and that an investigation is underway.

The latest scapegoat: institutional investors that are pouring billions into index funds pegged to a broad basket of commodities, including crude oil, exacerbating the price gains.

Tuesday, financier George Soros told Congress that commodity index funds contributed to the oil "bubble" and caused "harmful economic consequences." His remarks echoed those of Michael Masters, a hedge fund manager, who testified on May 20 before a Senate panel. Masters said oil's rise directly correlates to the cash that pension funds and endowments are pouring into commodities futures markets. Assets allocated to all commodity index trading strategies by "index speculators," he said, have risen from $13 billion in 2003 to $260 billion through March.

"These trading strategies amount to 'virtual hoarding' via the commodities futures markets," Masters testified.

Soros urged regulators to improve market oversight and place limits on the size of commodity-specific positions. The CFTC last Thursday said it will require monthly reports from traders on their index trading to better "identify the impact of this type of trading."

Blaming the indexers for the rise in oil or branding them as speculators is unfair, says Michael McGlone, director of commodity indexing at Standard & Poor's. S&P GSCI is a popular commodity index. Investing in an index fund that provides broad exposure to commodities is no different than an investor buying an S&P 500-stock index fund to diversify a stock portfolio, he says.

Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macro, says index investors are just easy scapegoats. "The evidence against commodity index funds is circumstantial at best," he says.

After falling $3.45 to $124.31 a barrel on Tuesday, oil is still up 30% for 2008. The drop came after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said more interest rate cuts are unlikely. That helped boost the dollar, which depressed oil, because oil is denominated in dollars.

Five years ago, big investors were tiny players in commodities. But after the 2000 stock bust, they sought out the asset class to diversify. Greenwich Associates says that a third of investors in commodities have been active in these markets for less than three years

Numbers suck!

It seems a weak greenback is not helping the manufacturing sector too much. The numbers came in today and they are not very good: Industrial production down 0.7% in April, manufacturing activity in the New York region has gone into the big fat negative territory. The Philly Fed Index improved to -15.6 but really where was it going to go after posting -24.9 previously. The housing market continues its free fall. What should the forex trader read in to all of this?

The dollar strength we have been seeing lately should abate. I would expect the dollar to give back most of its gains as we head into summer. The great thing about trading forex is our ability to be somewhat insulated from the economy. The currencies are going to fluctuate regardless of the state of any economy. Actually this helps the fx trader as it is easier to catch a nice wave and line your pockets. Enjoy the ride!

They Did!

Of course they did. We're talking about the Feds here. There may be a light at the end of the tunnel though as Mr. B did change his rhetoric slightly and hinted that the easing of interest rates may be ending. Not to sure if I believe that as the big bubble may break soon. What bubble are we talking about? Stay tuned for some very interesting info regarding the bubble that is about to burst and make whats happened recently look very mild!

What's all this have to do with forex for profits? As most all you know I no longer post trades on this blog as I believe it is better to teach would be traders a bit about forex. The only way to be successful in this business is to learn. In the long run this what makes a successful trader, this is the difference between success and failure in the currency markets. A good understanding of the fundamentals behind currency trading and the forex markets makes for a better trader. Plus I like to vent about the inadequate US Fed strategies, it keeps me from getting to pissed off!

G7

Changes in the G7 language regarding the volatility in the currency market, stability of financial markets, and the global economy were not enough to sustain a USD rally. The US dollar strengthened against the other majors but it was short lived.

What is the reason for this? Though the G7 changed the language, the markets believe there's not much behind the words. The G7 called for more investment bank self-regulation and higher capital requirements for banks. Of course the banks balked. We are now pretty much back where we started with the majors.

Not a problem, easy money with currencies filling gap from the weekend. Keep it simple stupid. K.I.S.S. that is the key to forex, and one of my favorite bands. Happy trading!

So It Is!

So it is. Bernanke, in typical Fed speak, has mentioned "recession". What does this mean? Not much really. The US economy has been slow for quite sometime. Unemployment has topped 5% and growth has been stagnant for quite sometime. Is the world going to end? No. Most economists figure that the feds will continue to lower rates, some thinking they may keep lowering into 2009. Most all agree that the economy will start to pick up in the 2nd half-3rd quarter of 08'.

What does all this mean for the poor dollar? Lots of volatility, excellent trading opportunities, and an interesting time to watch the buzzards on Wall Street. As I have said numerous times, the buzzards feed of this and induce panic, making a self-fulfilling prophecy. The Bear Stearn mess was the perfect example of this.

Washington, in all their wisdom, thinks that thay can fix this mess. I am not so sure a few more regulations and restrictions will make much difference as I think the problem is much more involved. I think we must look at the american public and the habits we all have.

More to come.....

Mortgage Mess

It is very disturbing to me that the government wants to use my hard earned money to bail out irresponsible homeowners. Don't get me wrong I don't want to see anyone lose their home but come on. What happened to people being responsible for their own decisions?

Would I like to live in a bigger home? Sure would, everybody would. The problem I have is many purchased homes that even my dog could have figured out they couldn't afford. Sorry idiots you should have known that when you make $30,000 a year you couldn't realistically afford a $300,000 home. It's not rocket science folks, we shouldn't bear the brunt of stupidity.

The gov bailing out Bear Stearns was a different story. Yes they are idiots also but to prevent a collapse of the financial system in this country, it had to be done. I'm not happy about it but being involved in what we're involved in, we should understand the ramifications if the idiots at Bear Stearn were allowed to collapse.

Gov-Stop bailing out idiots, put some responsibility back on the banks and the individuals who created this mess. It's time the Feds stop holding the hands of the morons.

Fiscal responsibility, something apparently the Feds and a lot of this country have no clue about!

Milestone!

The forum is up and running. Anyone can join, however, some topics are off limits unless you are a grail trader.

We have also started our Affiliate Program. Anyone can become an FXGrail Affiliate. This is a great way to earn extra dough for christmas, your trading, bills, etc. Each sale is worth $70.00 and their is a bonus of $100 for every ten sales. Simply put, sell 10 get $800. Not to shabby.

Check out the website here.

Interested in becoming an Affiliate Click Here.

Interesting Theory

I don't know how many of you follow the stock market but I thought this was quite interesting, As a forex trader it affects us also. Have a read, this is from the USA Today.

By Adam Shell, USA TODAY

NEW YORK — In a sign the credit crisis could spell lasting trouble for the stock market, one of Wall Street's oldest tools used to divine the longer-term direction of stock prices is flashing a warning signal.

Dow Theory, a market-trend forecasting system developed in the late 19th century by Wall Street Journal editor Charles Dow, is close to signaling that the primary trend of the market — which has been up for five years — is down, or bearish.

"The market is at a big inflection point," says Chuck Carlson, contributing editor of Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter. According to Dow Theory, if the Dow industrial average (made up of companies that make goods) and the Dow transportation average (made up of companies that ship goods) both breach significant market levels, it confirms a trend change.

The transports are trading below their August low, when the credit scare first hit stocks. What is worrisome is that the industrials, after plunging 4.5% the past three sessions, are hovering less than 197 points, or 1.5%, above their August low. If the industrials close below their Aug. 16 low of 12,845.78, it would confirm that the market trend has turned bearish.

"Dow Theory looks at significant points on the downside and upside," Carlson says. "If stocks breach those points, such as the dark period in August, it means something significant is going on. If both the industrials and transports are moving lower in tandem, it's not good for the economy, profits or stocks."

Stocks have been weighed down the past month by round two of a credit crisis that began this summer but has resurfaced in the past few weeks amid a slew of losses reported by major U.S. banks. These institutions are suffering from exposure to securities tied to risky mortgages that are declining rapidly in value.

Last week, the Dow industrials fell more than 550 points, or 4.1%, to close at 13,042.74 — 7.9% off their all-time high of 14,164.53. The pain of the current sell-off is approaching the 8.2% decline suffered in August from July's all-time high.

The catalyst for the downdraft was a drumbeat of bad news from the financial sector. On Friday, Wachovia (WB), the fourth-largest U.S. bank, reported a drop of $1.1 billion in the value of its mortgage-backed debt. Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) also warned of more losses to come in the fourth quarter. Those reports follow write-offs announced earlier in the week by the nation's biggest bank, Citigroup (C) ($8 billion to $11 billion ) and Morgan Stanley (MS) ($3.7 billion).

Stocks have also been under pressure from the fallout caused by a sharp drop in the value of the U.S. dollar, soaring energy prices and fears of rising inflation.

But the still-unquantifiable losses due to the credit crunch are what really has Wall Street on edge. "It shakes the confidence of the financial system," says Pat Adams, portfolio manager at Choice Funds.