Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Taking it easy

Hey all, actually doing nothing right now. Having a nice relaxing evening. What a change from the previous trader I knew. He thought he needed to watch every pip move. He sure was obsessive, I'm glad I do not associate with him anymore. He has moved out. Now it's just me and The FXGrail (notice the name change, a little bit catchier). Take another evening and chill, the market will be there when we return. As always, Happy Trading!

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Sittin' this one out

After the crazy day in all financial markets, I will have a seat on the sidelines for a bit. Let the dust settle as they say. Unbelievable performance by The Grail this month. I knew this was a good system, my backtesting proved it, but it has been incredible. The key as always is to follow the rules. The trader makes the system, the system does not make the trader!

The final tally for the month of February:

Week #1: +521
Week #2: +118
Week #3: +493
Week #4: +377

Total for February: +1509.

Those are some very good results. They could have been much better, conservative estimate is that I left over 600 pips on the table. That tells me two things, 1. The Grail is a very powerful system 2. I need to refine my profit taking strategy to capture a few more pips. All in all very happy with The Grail, made some serious profit this month. As always, happy trading.

Amazing

The Grail Strikes again. Some great trades last night. Have closed all positions.

USD/JPY: Hit target point +60.

AUD/JPY: Hit 1st t/p +47, 2nd t/p +102, total +149.

CHF/JPY: Hit 1st t/p +28, closed 2nd lot @97.30 for +76 for total +104

USD/CAD: Hit 1st t/p +29, closed 2nd @ 1.1641 for +35, total +64.

Total for the day: +377, stellar performance by the grail. Stay tuned!

Monday, February 26, 2007

The Grail in action

Sorry a bit late, let's get right to it. Four new trades from The Grail:

USD/JPY: short@120.64, s/l 121.09, t/p `120.34. 2 lots

USD/CAD: long@ 1.1606, s/l 1.1559, 1st t/p 1.1635, 2nd t/p 1.1675. Will move s/l to 1.1610 on close of 1 st order.

AUD/JPY: short@95.72, s/l 96.50, 1st t/p 95.25, 2nd t/p 94.70. Will move s/l to 95.60 on close of 1st order.

CHF/JPY: short@ 98.06, s/l 98.50, 1st t/p 97.78, 2nd t/p 97.15. Will move s/l to 97.95 on close of 1st order.

Happy trading!

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Weekly Recap

The Grail worked extremely well again this past week. We will be starting this week with zero open trades. I was able to close everything Friday. Here is a recap:

EUR/CHF: This trade never got going. If you recall as of last Wednesday I was looking for a good exit. I got it, I was able to exit at the entry so this trade resulted in 0 pips. A success in my book.

USD/CAD: Was hoping for better, closed this out when it stalled at 1.1612/16 range for the umpteenth time. Officially closed @ 1.1612 for +24 pips. It then dropped pretty good, I got out at the right time.

GBP/USD: Both target points hit after surviving s/l by 1 pip earlier. 1st lot +43, 2nd lot +93, total +136.

Weekly total: +493 pips. whoohoo!

Totals:
Week#1: +521
Week#2: +118
Week#3: +493

The Grail rocks!

Will not be taking any trades tonight. Good Luck, and happy trading.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Two new trades

I did leave some pips on the table yesterday. I used to get quite upset over this, but I have learned to forget about it. With the uncertain nature of the BOJ Statement yesterday I believe it was the right thing to do. On to the trades, we are now back to 2 lot trades:

EUR/CHF: almost stopped out last night, I am now looking for a decent exit as I believe this trade may never materialize.

New Trades:

USD/CAD: long@1.1600, s/l 1.1535, 1st tgt 1.1650, 2nd tgt 1.1690.

GBP/USD: long@ 1.9547, s/l 1.9460. 1st tgt 1.9590, 2nd tgt 1.9640. Will be watching the stop on this trade, may lower it a bit as this is a pretty tight stop on this pair.

Their are a few more pairs that The Grail is close to confirming, will keep everybody posted. Happy trading.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

*****REVISION*****

7:58 pm***REVISION***

With the upcoming BOJ decision I have decided to have a stress free night and lock in some nice pips. I have revised all YEN trades. The revisions are as follows:

EUR/JPY: closed @158.12 for +42
GBP/JPY: closed @235.30 for +65
USD/JPY: closed @120.30 for +25

I was stressing too much about the BOJ and the feeling that they will raise rates. I'll bank the +132 pips. New weekly total is +333. I may leave some nice pips on the table, but can't dwell. Anytime I can bank over 100 pips in a day, I can't complain.

Monday, February 19, 2007

And another!

Welcome to another week of The Grail. I have been on an extended weekend in New York for some much needed rest and relaxation. I have not even glanced at the charts to see if there are any new trades. Will start trading again tomorrow.

Lets review the open trades:
EUR/CHF: still giving strong signal, will let it ride.
EUR/CAD: starting to move in our favor, looks good.
EUR/AUD: 1st tgt pt. hit @1.6675 (+61) s/l hit after moved to 1.6720 (+16) for a total of +76 pips. Not a bad way to start out the week.

Running totals:
Week #1=+521 pips
Week #2=+118 pips
Week #3= +76 pips (ongoing)

I am very happy with these results. As long as I follow the rules, I should see consistent profits every week. Happy trading.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

St. Valentine's Day Massacre!

WOW! St. Valentine's Day was the suck. I didn't follow my own rules and it bit me in the ass, again. The big loser was the GBP/JPY long. My cardinal sin-I did not wait for all the signals. I jumped the gun, something I had sworn to never do again. I was sure the pair was going to fulfill all requirements of The Grail and figured I would get a head start, I then changed the s/l hoping to salvage the trade. That was mistake #2. As I have posted before, it is the trader not the system. Stick by the rules!

The one thing I love about Forex is that it is a never ending learning experience. Some lessons are definitely more expensive then others, but always worth the price. Lesson learned. Stick to the system! Lets recap yesterdays events:

EUR/AUD-still going nowhere, a bit in the red but signals still good.

EUR/CAD-After diving, is starting to climb back up, still in red but signals look good.

GBP/JPY- This bad boy did a nose dive after very bad GBP Retail Sales numbers. Hit my revised s/l (stupid move-had nothing to do with system) closing 2 lots for -498. Not good. Lucky for me I was watching this mess unfold. As it blew through the 50% retracement I took a 2 lot short @234.50, closed @ 232.60 when the pair started to stall a bit for +380. End result of this debacle -118 pips. Could and should have been much worse, I was lucky. I was testing a 1 hour strategy and happened to catch it when it broke through the Fibo and was able to get some pips back. as far as The Grail-neither the long or the short was by the book, would have been much better if I had followed my own rules. Lesson definitely learned. See what the system gives, not what you want the system to give.

GBP/USD-I waited for The Grail to give me the signal. Went long 2 lots@ 1.9550 with a tgt of 1.9700. After the US TIC Report at 9:00 am it spiked up and I decided to get out @1.9600 for +100. Called it a day after this trade.

By looking at the end results of the day one would think it wasn't so bad. -18 pips is not a terrible day, but I was lucky. I broke my rules and didn't suffer to much. I shall never break the rules of The Grail again, repeat after me, I shall never break the rules of The Grail again!

One new trade strictly from The Grail- EUR/CHF short@1.6221, s/l 1.6305, tgt pt. 1.6150. Will close 1 lot @ 1.6180 and move s/l to 1.6195. Good Luck!

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Happy Valentines Day

Happy v-day to everybody, I hope it is a good one. The EUR/AUD trade is a bit in the red as we speak. This one could get a little dicey. I may move s/l up to around 1.6900. I have a feeling it may spike before heading back down, kind of like the USD/CAD trade last week. I am going to play this one by ear. Today we have to trades:

GBP/JPY- long@ 237.09 s/l@ 235.15 1st tgt pt. 238.25, will then move s/l to 237.39 with a tgt pt @ 239.25. ****REVISION*** s/l moved to 234.60, just under the 50% retracement from the 228.05 to 241.49 move up.******

EUR/CAD-long@ 1.5302 s/l 1.5198 1st tgt pt. 1.5350, will then move s/l to 1.5312 with tgt pt. @ 1.5402.

I am also watching GBP/USD very closely as The Grail is on the verge of giving a signal, looking for a retracement down into the low 1.95's where I will go long with a tgt pt. @ +1.9700.

Remember these are my trades, please use caution when trading. Forex is a very volatile market and in know way am I responsible for any gains or losses that may be incurred while following my trading style. As always Good Luck!

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

More Success!

Another good trade using The Grail. trading is much easier when you stick with a system, when you have confidence in a system. This, I think, is the difference between success and failure. Stick to your rules, follow your system, whatever it may be. I don't believe the system makes the trader, rather the trader makes the system. A good system is useless if the trader can't stick to the rules. A good system is useless if the trader doesn't follow sound money management. To be a success one must stick to the rules and follow good money management rules. It really is that simple. On to the trades:

AUD/JPY: 1st lot hit 93.75 (+30), moved s/l to 94.00. 2nd lot was stopped out for +5. Total on this trade +35. I'll take it.

New trade: EUR/AUD short@1.6736, s/l@ 1.6840, 1st tgt pt. 1.6775, will then move s/l to 1.6720 with tgt pt. @ 1.6615.

I will discuss more on the stop/loss and target points soon. Keep checking back.

Monday, February 12, 2007

Another good one!

All right, another good trade for The Grail. So far no losses, very impressive. I have a ton of confidence in this system. Let's get down to business:

EUR/AUD-closed 1st lot @ 1.6810 for +68, 2nd lot hit s/l after moved to 1.6775 for + 33. Total=+101. Great trade!

One new trade today: AUD/JPY short@ 94.05 s/l@ 95.70, tgt pt @ 92.80. Good Luck.

*Revision-Upon further review of this trade I am moving s/l to 95.00 and tgt pt to 93.40, will close 1 lot @93.75 and move s/l of 2nd lot to 94.00. We will see how it goes.

Sunday, February 11, 2007

A New Week

Ok, a new week and so many possibilities. I am placing just one trade today, their are a few others that are close to fulfilling all parameters, but I am only taking trades that fulfill 100%. I didn't backtest this pair as much as I would have liked, but it was profitable.

EUR/AUD: long@ 1.6742 s/l@1.6635 tgt pt. 1.6850. Will close 1 lot upon breach of 1.6800 and move s/l to 1.6775. Good Luck!

Friday, February 9, 2007

Acted to soon!

Bummer. USD/CAD hit the new target point, and then continued down like I thought it would do days ago. +60 pips is not bad, although it could have been much better. We are talking roughly +180 or so. Oh well we win some and we win some bigger. I'll be happy with 60 pips. This brings the 1 week total of The Grail to +521 with no losing trades. Woo hoo! On to next week.

Thursday, February 8, 2007

Internet down!

Sorry. My internet has been down since early afternoon. I believe it is time to get a backup provider. This is a good reason to never trade without a stop-loss. On to the business at hand, let's review the trades:

USD/CAD: Still ranging, not really going anywhere. The spike that I anticipated did happen although the retracement has not been as deep as I expected. I will close both lots @117.95. This pair was the worst performing in the backtest, I may discontinue trading it until we get some clear direction.

EUR/USD: Second lot closed out @ s/l for +10 pips. It then rebounded quickly, it happens, I'll take the profit. Total on this trade +40

EUR/JPY: Nice trade. 1st lot closed out @ 157.50 the initial target point for +52. Forgot to trail stop and 2nd lot closed out @ 158.25 for +127. Total +179. Excellent

Due to the internet being down for so long I have placed no trades today. it has been a very good week and I will stick by the plan of only opening new trades upon beginning of the days' new candle. Grand Total for the first week of The Grail: +461 pips, with one trade still open. i am very pleased with this performance, it is even better than I expected. I am really looking forward to next week. I will play with exit points a bit this weekend to try and fine tune, but will not drastically change anything as it is working fine. I will explain some of the methods to this madness this weekend, I think you will find it very beneficial.

Wednesday, February 7, 2007

Rolling right along

Ok, new day and one new trade. For reference there will be days with many trades, days with a few trades, and days with no trades. The key is to stay disciplined. When there are no trades, I can't go hunting for one. This has always been my Achilles heal. I want to trade, I need the fix. I would have a great week going and then make a trade that really didn't fit the profile. We all know what happened next. Bad trade, let the losses run trying to get back to even, positive week turns negative, blahhh. We have all been there. I have changed my ways, no more I say! Follow The Grail (hope this name isn't already taken, I kind of like it). The Grail will show me the way. So on to the trades. First updates on the open trades:

USD/CAD-Still in the red, have moved s/l to 1.1900. I believe there may be a short lived spike towards 1.1870 before a nice retracement. Definitely do not want to make a habit of moving s/l on trades in the red, but after scrutinizing the charts I believe this is warranted.

EUR/USD-Closed 1 lot @ 130.10 (+30 pips) and moved s/l to 129.90 (trailing) locking in +10 pips. Have lowered target to 130.40. I was concerned about this trade but it has turned out very nice.

New trade today: EUR/JPY long @ 156.98 s/l-156.20 tgt point 158.25. Will close 1 lot and move s/l 157.10 upon break of 157.50.

Don't forget about the BOE Interest Rate Statement upcoming. It could be a wild ride, although I would be very surprised if they hike again this soon.

Tuesday, February 6, 2007

Day 3

Day 3 and all is well. The Grail seems to be performing as I expected it would. I know it is early but I am very excited about the system. Lets get on with it.

Updates on open trades:

USD/CAD (short @1.1825): Trade still open, not much happening. Will stick with this trade per the system.

USD/GBP (short @ 1.9662): Closed second lot @ 1.9600 for a grand total of +162. Excellent trade.

EUR/USD (short@1.2962): 2nd lot hit s/l for +10 after coming very close to target. Total on this trade +50.

EUR/GBP (short@.6590): Closed both lots out @ .6575 after stalling. Total +30. Still a very good trade on this pair.

Running total as of today +242 pips with USD/CAD still going. Only 1 new trade entered today:
EUR/USD long @1.2980 s/l 1.2910 tgt. 1.3050. Will close one lot upon break of 1.300 and move s/l to 1.2990. This is a bit of a risky trade as the signal is not as strong as I would like, but in backtesting the Grail, it is one that I factored in. Time will tell. Good Luck.

I will be discussing this system and some of the details in due time. Right now I am trying to fine tune it, the hardest part is the profit taking. I am fine tuning this part of The Grail, trying to maximize the pips without risking to much profit. More to come.

Monday, February 5, 2007

The Grail!

The grail, The name of my new system. We shall see how it goes. I am only trading with this system. I will not be free-lancing. Discipline is the key. I have back tested this and believe it will be successful. I am extremely confident in this system.

I will be posting trades and updates as close to 5pm est as I can. All trades will be made at 5pm. I will check them periodically as I hone the profit taking part of the system. All trades will consist of 2 lots. Lets get going.

I started yesterday upon the opening of a new candle by my broker. Trades entered yesterday:

EUR/USD short@ 1.2962 s/l 1.3064. Closed 1 lot @ 1.2922 (+40), moved s/l to 1.2952 locking in +10 pips. T/P is 1.2900 where I will trail the stop.

GBP/USD short@ 1.9662 s/l 1.9745. Closed 1 lot @ 1.9552 (+100), moved s/l 1.9652 locking in +10 pips. T/P is 1.9535, will trail stop @ 1.9590.

EUR/GBP short@ .6590 s/l .6623. T/P is .6570.

Todays trades: Only 1 trade today.

USD/CAD short@ 1.1825 s/l 1.1880, t/p 117.50. Will close 1 lot @ 117.95 and move stop to lock in 10 pips on 2nd lot and trail stop @117.50.

24 hrs into the grail system and have locked in 160 pips, not bad. This system will have some ups and downs, like any other system, but my backtesting has shown me that over time, and with good money management, this system will kick ass. Stay tuned! How about them Colts, nice!

Thursday, February 1, 2007

LIVE! LIVE! LIVE!

I have finished the testing phase of my new system. I am very anxious to get the ball rolling. I will start trading the system next week. I can't wait. I will try to post trades as soon as I make them. Most all trades will be entered at 5:00pm est. Hopefully we can all make some pips of this. Next order of business is to name the system. I will have something by Monday. Any suggestions please feel free to email.

I have done very little live trading this week. My USD/CHF long trade stopped out for -20pips, bummer, this has been a tough pair to trade this year. I did enter USD/CAD short Monday night and closed out for 40 pips. Yesterday I got lucky and caught GBP/USD long for 100pips after it retraced down to the 1.9620's and then shot up to 1.9737. Crazy news this week. Today I had EUR/JPY for 30 pips, but had -40 pips on a EUR/CHF trade. All in all a decent week. I will not trade tomorrow, market will be very volatile due to the US NFP (NonFarm Payroll). I will take my positive week and call it good.

The NonFarm Payroll is a measurement of all new jobs created in the last month excluding the farming industry. This number really moves the market. A rising trend is good for the greenback, a declining trend is bad, obviously, for the greenback. It is forecast to come in around 146k which is about a 20k decline from November. I would not bet on that number, the forecasts are rarely correct on this. The NFP is so important because it is the first report of the month that relates to labor conditions. It can set the tone for the entire month of trading. I will watch it, just won't trade it. Next week is the week. Every trade will be based of the new system, there will be no deviations. I am excited!